AUDL Set for Expansion: Sign of Good Times?
By: Ryan Saba
Recently, the AUDL has released a slew of new expansion
teams slated for the 2013 season and beyond. Among those teams: the
Jacksonville Cannons, the Toronto Rush, the New Jersey Hammerheads, and the
Windy City Wildfire (with more teams being released almost every week). Judging
by the AUDL map here,
we can also expect teams from Madison, Minneapolis, New York, Boston, and
Washington D.C. to be announced in the near future. This round of expansion
will double the size of the AUDL from 8 to 16 teams, making it a seemingly more
legitimate organization than it has been this year (not a knock on the AUDL,
but nevertheless true). Given all the hype surrounding the AUDL and these newly
released expansion teams, it has to make you wonder: Is the AUDL really THAT
successful? Read on for our best guess at an answer.
Any league looking for legitimacy needs to expand. Expanding
from 8 to 16 teams is huge for the AUDL, and may solidify its status as a
legitimate sports league and not just a failed startup. That being said, is the
AUDL bringing in enough revenue to warrant expansion? We know the interest is
there, but are people actually attending games and buying merchandise, or are
people simply keeping up to date with the scores and stats of AUDL teams and
not spending any money supporting them? Judging from what I’ve seen, it looks
like the results vary on a team by team basis. Judging exclusively by ticket
price, quality of online store, number of sponsorships, and team record, here
are my personal rankings for most successful AUDL teams:
1. Philadelphia Spinners
($14), good store, seven sponsorships, 9-1 record.
2.
Indianapolis Alleycats
($9), good store, seven sponsorships, 7-5 record.
3.
Connecticut Constitution ($9),
great store, two sponsorships, 8-3 record.
4.
Detroit Mechanix ($20),
good store, seven sponsorships, 4-8 record.
5.
BlueGrass Revolution ($12),
good store, one sponsorship, 6-5 record.
6.
Columbus Cranes ($8),
decent store, two sponsorships, 5-6 record.
7.
Rhode Island Rampage ($11),
no store, no sponsorships, 5-6 record.
8.
Buffalo Hunters ($6), no
store, no sponsorships, 0-10 record.
Looking at these rankings, I divided the league into three
sections: the good (Philadelphia, Indianapolis, Connecticut), the decent
(Detroit, BlueGrass, Columbus), and the bad (Rhode Island, Buffalo). It seems
as though quality of store and number of sponsorships are both indicative of
team success; the teams with a solid amount of sponsorships are in the top half
of the league, while the teams with little to no sponsorships are in the bottom
half (with the exception of the Alleycats and the Cranes). Quality of Store is
completely subjective, but it seems as though the successful teams took time to
put out quality merchandise that people will want, whereas the unsuccessful
teams either have no store or little offerings in their respective online
stores. There is also no clear regional predictor for success; 2/3 of the top
teams are on the East Coast; however, both of the awful teams are also on the
East Coast. The Midwest makes up all of the medium quality teams with the
exception of the Alleycats, who I deemed a top team (losing Brodie Smith early
in the season was a huge loss for them, yet they still seem to be doing well).
(Note: The date above is current as of 6/26/12. Quality of
store is my own opinion and number of sponsorships is based on the number of
sponsors I saw upon visiting each team’s website)
If my rankings are in the least bit accurate, there are
three truly successful teams in the AUDL with solid revenue from tickets and
merchandise. The middle three teams may or may not be doing well; however, we
have no way of knowing for certain. As for the bottom two teams, there is no
way they are earning any significant revenue and chances are likely that they
will cease to exist in the future.
According to an article on abcnews.com, individuals can
start a franchise for “as little as $2,500”, and player revenue can be based
off of either stipends or, in the case of Brodie Smith, revenue sharing. I’m going
to make a very rough assumption that the average AUDL team needs to sell about
4,000 tickets per season to break even, which translates to 500 tickets per
home game. Merchandise and pay per view sales can be counted on top of these
numbers as well. In all honesty, I can only see the top three teams in the
league bringing in over 500 people per game (the Mechanix might if their
tickets didn’t cost $20). From personal experience and from talking to others,
it seems as though the top tier teams are bringing in around 600-700 fans per
game, while mid to lower tier teams are bringing in less than 300 fans per game.
Judging by these numbers and seeing how half of the teams in
the AUDL probably aren’t making profits (and if they are, they’re probably not
significant), what is motivating the expansion of the league? It would be one
thing if most of the teams in the league were making profits, but to go into
the league with a 50/50 shot is not worth it, in my opinion. Taking a premature
look at the expansion teams, I would already predict that the New Jersey, New
York, and Washington D.C. teams will be the least successful of the group.
Madison, Minneapolis, Boston, Toronto, and Chicago are all major ultimate hotbeds,
whereas the other cities really are not huge areas of ultimate interest. I
realize $2,500 is a relatively small startup cost, but once travel,
advertising, merchandise, and other costs are factored in, I believe it would
cost around $40,000 to run an AUDL team for one season. In addition to these
costs, players have to be paid as well. I know no one is quitting their day job
to play professional ultimate, but after a few years, you have to wonder if the
players will keep taking so much time out of their lives for little to no pay.
As I said earlier, expansion is a necessity for any
legitimate professional league. In order for the AUDL to become more popular
amongst non-ultimate players, it needs to become bigger. That being said, I don’t
know if the incentives are there for prospective owners to join the league.
Perhaps the new owners have financial information that we are not exposed to
that indicates profits are being earned in the league, or, if not, have
reliable data on their prospective fanbases that indicate that a profit could
be made. If more teams join the league
and fall by the wayside, like the Hunters or the Rampage, it could spell
trouble, and perhaps even failure, for the entire league. Having even six
successful teams out of sixteen is not good enough for a professional league of
any sort. It is my hope that, in the long run, I am dead wrong and that the
expansion of the AUDL is successful and allows it to become a more legitimate professional
league. A league that the sport of
ultimate desperately needs.
Readers, what are your thoughts on the AUDL's expansion?
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I find it strange that you identify NY as lacking in ultimate inerest. I'd say about a third of the CT team's fanbase is from NYC. In fact, I think the main issue with the expansion of a NY team will be that a good number of the Constitution's fan base (and player base, a bunch of the CTC's "studs" are from NY) will hop off the Constitution's wagon and onto the closer, presumably(hopefully) less-stupidly named NY team. (Side note: let's be honest, anything is better than "Constitution." Whoever named the initial teams was smoking something... Cranes? Alleycats? Mechanics with an x? Why not call the NJ team the Guidos)
ReplyDeleteI'm curious how dumb the Buffalo Hunters or Rampage owners would have to be to try to continue sinking cash into a failed venture for 2013. Unless there is some form of revenue sharing happening between the only profitable team(Philly) and the failing teams, I don't see how they'll fool someone to do it two years in a row. And, honestly, if I were the Spinners, who have clearly put a lot of work in to community events, or the Constitution, who seem to have worked pretty hard on their store, I'd be pretty pissed to have to share with the Rampage just because they couldn't find a single sponsor. Although, that's not on the Rampage really, starting a team in Rhode Island was just poor research and planning. As was Buffalo, when Rhochester has a pretty active youth and summer league...
In any case, some people I know to be intelligent somehow still think professional ultimate is capable of making money, which I find just laughable. Get exposure for the sport? Good job. Youth outreach? Great. Make money and quit your real job to play ultimate? Give it another 50 years.
Is it an expansion or just new alternatives to replace teams that will likely not survive ?
ReplyDeleteGenerally, a business may not make money in its 1st year, though a business investment - like a sports team - takes time to be profitable. Adding more teams naturally increases the overall fan base. Until AUDL is broadcast on TV, the wider audience (consumer$) is lacking.
ReplyDeleteProfessional appearance of team logos is a major issue for the original 8 AUDL teams - http://bit.ly/Ic71Ca
Merch sales (supplementary income) don't seem to be a priority - http://bit.ly/IQQHd8
##
I believe that the cost of a franchise is now $10,000.
DeleteIN the long run, I would fully expect up to half the franchises to fail. The overall success rate for any new business startup up is very low. Less than a quarter succeed. What will be interesting to see will be if the individual franchises are sufficiently independent that they can survive the loss of a couple franchises. If the league is liable for the financial losses of the worst performing teams, it could quickly sink into a monetary mire and cease operations.
ReplyDeleteI think the bigger issue with their expansion is cannibalizing dollars from existing teamss. Not that any team has a particularly large fan base, but putting a team in Chicago will pull some talent and dollars away from Indy. Same is true for the east coast teams, where putting at team in Boston will almost assuredly cause kill the Rhode Island team. There are some marginal financial benefits to a high team density (lower travel costs), but overall I think the high density of teams is going to hurt the financial viability of several of these franchises.
As for whether players will back out of playing because they aren't being paid, the AUDL players I have talked to are thrilled that it isn't costing them to travel and play. Instead of paying hundreds or thousands of dollars to travel and play other teams, they break even and have the possibility of getting a little extra. I don't think we have to worry about them jumping ship in the near future.
I would like to say the Buffalo Hunters are getting better, slowly, but surely. They DO need to advertise, get a better website, and put up some things to sell. They have a FANTASTIC logo, I love it. They're jerseys are my favorite out of the league. If only they had a better marketing team, they would be much more successful.
ReplyDeleteThe logo is terrible........
DeleteMy research suggests that your attendance numbers are generous.
ReplyDeleteI don't see anybody talking about a Western Conference... what if the AUDL expands to Austin, Dallas, Kansas City, Phoenix, Denver (Boulder), Salt Lake City, Las Vegas, and Los Angeles? (I'm just throwing out 8 cities that could probably build up team support, but by no means is it a top-tier list). Each conference would remain separate until the playoffs, where teams would integrate. Also, this could expand knowledge of the AUDL outside the eastern seaboard & part of the midwest.
ReplyDeleteTwo words: travel costs.
DeleteWith how much money franchises will lose in the opening year (or years) of the league before (hopefully) becoming profitable, having teams in the ultimate hotbeds of Boulder, Seattle and San Fran, though a good idea in the long run, would be too expensive right now.
If you look at that map, though, 2014 expansion rights have been sold in SanFran, Seattle, Portland, Vancouver, Austin and Denver, where there is a lot of interest in ultimate (also Vegas, Salt Lake, and San Jose)
My understanding of what the league is intending to do has more to do with the growth of the sport and youth outreach than $$$$. Now I am not naive and know every franchise and the league would eventually like to make money but that is secondary to being involved with the birth of a new league. Players today are already traveling a lot for tournaments but are typically having to pay their own way. This league gives an opportunity for them to play at the highest level, not have to foot their own costs, play in front of an ever growing fan base, and eventually if things progress even make a little money on the side.
ReplyDeleteThat is what I feel the appeal of the league is. So for those franchises that may not be making a profit, as long as they are covering their costs and having fun, that is the first goal. I don't think anyone is expecting (owners, staff, and players) to quit their day jobs anytime soon.
The reason then why expension is so much more important in this case is that there are many other players and fans out there that won't up roots and move to a city that has a team but would definitely be willing to play and support a local city for the love and passion of the sport. This is also why you probably will see much of the league advertising to the core Ultimate base around their cities first. Start with getting the base of fans you know you can count on and then reach out to Joe Public to further grow the sport.
Just a few thoughts.
Hammertime, they are planning on expanding, west and south, and everywhere in between.
ReplyDeleteMore importantly, the two biggest indicators of how well an ultimate team would fare in are area are not even being discussed. The size of the city and the number of people who play ultimate there. Before the AUDL even started I could've told you that Rhode Island, Buffalo, Detroit would be among the worst teams in the league, and that Philadelphia, Indianapolis, and Columbus would be in the top. Why? Look at the AMOUNT of ultimate played in a city (not quality!) and divide by the population. These would be pretty small numbers, so I'll just cite Wikipedia and Pickupultimate.com for some examples.
1. Philadelphia: 1,526,006 people (roughly 11 games in the area)
2. Indianapolis: 820,445 people (roughly 8 games in the area)
3. Hartford: 124,775 people (roughly 5 games in the area)
4. Detroit: 713,777 people (roughly 7 games in the area)
5. Lexington: 295,803 people (roughly 3 games in the area)
6. Columbus: 787,033 people (roughly 1 game in the area)
7. Providence: 178,042 people (roughly 2 games in the area)
8. Buffalo: 261,310 people (roughly 1 game in the area)
Although this will not reflect the QUALITY of the ultimate in the area, I can promise you that these ratios show the same predictions that Ryan is suggesting, in terms of profit and supporter turnout.
It's funny how people assume that "hotbeds" of ultimate activity will produce good turnout. Those "hotbeds" are usually small-to-medium size groups of intensely competitive and active ultimate players. But that's not what we are seeing (or will ever see)
Pro- and semi-pro players of ANY sport don't go and pay to spectate other teams, they play and they train. The people who go watch games are more likely to be amateurs, or people who just play to have fun, or have free time and money to spend.
The money-makers in the current AUDL format are probably Philadelphia, Indianapolis, Columbus, and maybe Detroit and Connecticut. If the league expands as they plan to do I expect that the of profit of the new 8 teams would be:
Washington DC, New York, Chicago, and Boston would make money and:
Madison, Toronto, New Jersey, and Minneapolis will not.
Don't get me wrong, those bottom four have some amazing ultimate scenes, but I don't think that they have the population or fan base to support their teams.
i agree with most of this, but i beg to differ on the expansion teams that you think will fail. i agree that dc, boston, and probably chicago and new york will succeed, but i would also include toronto, madison, and minneapolis. i am not 100% sure about their summer league communities, but that is the market that is going to see games. the summer league players that are to old for college or not skilled enough for club. those people will pay to see games. side note, why is pittsburgh never considered for these sort of things. they have a large summer league compared to other areas and obviously have some ultimate buzz following pitt's national championship (public radio, newspaper articles, ect). why are they not capitalizing on that
DeleteI wouldn't say that Providence and Buffalo have amazing ultimate scenes...
ReplyDeleteWhy isn't the Rhode Island team trying to 'move' to Boston? Why isn't Connecticut trying to move to New York City?
ReplyDeleteThere are a ton of fans in NYC - the fact that 40 would pay $20 to drive two hours each way on a party bus to me only indicates that there are 400 who would pay for a subway ride to see a team play a game.
What's the real market in NYC? Even given that the ultimate scene is poorly developed, fragmented, and not especially large, I still think it's the best market as there are more college/university students in NYC than any city in the country (more than Boston even). If you can get a field/stadium anywhere near the subway, I think drawing on average 1,000 fans a game is a make-able target.
That is one of the major issues with the TLA (Territory License Agreement). If an owners owns that territory, does the owner have the right to move the team withing the territory? I believe that most owners of the league would say yes. CT has a large fan base in NY and it would be advantageous for CT to move and make it easier for those fans to get to games and for RI to move towards Boston. This is part of the issue when Josh Moore, aka the AUDL, discusses capturing the Boston and New York MARKETS versus having teams in those locations and which of those topics was discussed with the owners. There are teams in place that can capture those markets and believe they have the right to do so.
DeleteThe fact that you say that DC would be unsuccessful is absolutely ridiculous. DC has got to be one of the top 5 ultimate scenes in the country in terms of the number people who play at a relatively high level and number of club teams available. From Truck Stop, Med men, Squires, Swell, Push, and even a few more teams,(not even counting mixed teams) do you really think there wouldn't be a market for an audl team? I think it'll be tough for teams that are in trouble to continue, but if they maintain the east coast teams and start expansion from there, then that could work.
ReplyDeleteFrom what I can tell the AUDL is having a lot of issues. There should be hesitancy in buying a franchise till year 4, when we can see the sucess or failures of the 8 orginal teams and the new teams coming on board. I have noticed that there is no substaintial league sponsor for the organization, and who want to sponsor the league when some teams such as Detroit and Lexington are getting less then 100 fans to attend each game. Is the goal here to a make this a real professional organization? Or for someone to pocket the money from selling the franchises? We should continue to look for true sports professionalism, which includes Marketing of the teams and League to build a fan base and interest in the sport, not just marketing to add teams. Let's see what teams return from this year, and hope the AUDL doesn't become a revolving door of one team in and one team out.
ReplyDeleteWould the Toronto team use footblocks outside of the Toronto, or will hey hold true to their convictions?.... No Foot Blocks!
ReplyDeleteI also agree that assuming D.C. would not be a profitable area is a little unfounded. There are plenty of club teams and generally where there are elite club teams there is a growing ultimate scene. As in those of us who play on teams elite or not tend to do their best to give back to the ultimate community in the area or even create one. That being said, I think all the areas listed for expansion this year have a very good chance at being profitable especially compared to the original 8, the Spinners as an exception. It may be the fact that these teams could survive in places that do not have as strong a base as Boston for example is a big selling point for people in an area where ultimate is already pretty big. However one thing these new teams really need to do is get the Elite teams on board. I know this year Ironside encouraged its players not to tryout for Rampage. It will be interesting to see if this changes in the coming year. Then we may see the level of play rise and perhaps the interest. Who knows? And if that does happen what will become of the USAU season? I'm excited to see it all fold out. Side note anyone wants to check out some great Ultimate news go to neultimate.com and look at what New Engalnd Ultimate is covering in the Ultimate scene on all levels.
ReplyDeleteI don't agree with writing off NJ expansion so quickly. Depending on the location they play the games it could be a solid investment. There are A LOT of colleges in NJ, and I play in several pick up games in northern NJ that have been going on 10+ years. The ultimate activity is solid here. NJ residents have no problem driving to go do/see something. I think game attendance will be very high. A central location with quick access from the parkway would allow fans from all over the state to get to the games easily. Maybe I'm naive because I am so excited for the team. I was very close to driving to a Philadelphia game (1.5 hour drive) but decided not to. I could easily see NJ being extremely successful.
ReplyDelete